Dang, it’s no wonder why work suffers so much this time of year.

Call it a drop in productivity or whatever, but the 2007 NCAA Basketball Tournament will have its day, or let’s say several days from today (March 15) and continuing with the national championship on Monday, April 2.

Between now and then, 64 teams will be whittled down to 2. This is a loser affair, only winners advance in what is traditionally called The Big Dance. The 32 winners from Thursday and Friday will play again on Saturday or Sunday.

By Sunday night, the season will be over for 48 teams, as only 16 will advance to the third round next Thursday and Friday. These 16 are known as the Sweet 16. Two days later, 8 more teams will be eliminated and we will have what is known as the Elite 8.

Then the Final 4 and finally the national championship.

So how will 30 million Americans get involved? Simple office pools.

Experts estimate that more than $2.5 billion (yes, billion) will be gambled this year. For those of you counting, that’s more than was wagered on the last Super Bowl. And only 4% of the $2.5 billion will be gambled “legally” in Nevada.

Math types will be delighted to learn the probabilities of choosing a perfect parenthesis.

Are you ready? It’s 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1. Please don’t ask me who discovered this.

This number is slightly more than Bill Gates’ fortune. It is 9 quintillion to 1, or a billion times bigger than 9 billion. Good grievance.

You might want to think of it your way: If every man, woman, and child on planet Earth randomly filled in 10 million brackets each, the chances would be LESS than 1% that even one would have a perfect bracket.

This thought would agree with a RJ Bell of Pregame.com. If you know who RJ Bell is, you’ve probably been gambling online at some point.

It may be a little late for some advice on who to pick as the winner in the office pool, but RJ Bell offers these tips:

(Editor’s Note: These statistics cover the last 21 years of the tournament, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.)

• In Round One, be very selective by picking any team below the No. 12 seed to win. The No. 16 seeds are 0 for 88 and the No. 15 seeds are just 4 for 88.

• If you’re looking for surprises, the No. 12 seeds have beaten the No. 5 seeds in 11 of 24 games in the last 6 years, and the No. 9 seeds have a winning record against the No. 8 seeds.

• In Round Two, the No. 1 seeds advance almost automatically, winning their first two games 86% of the time.

• Continue advancing the No. 12 and No. 10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win nearly half the time in the second round.

• Only 9% of teams seeded number 13 or lower advance past the second round on the opening weekend.

• In the Sweet 16, advance exactly three of the No. 1 seeds as only 70% of No. 1 seeds advance to the Elite Eight.

• No No. 12 or lower seeded team has ever advanced to the Elite 8.

• Advance one or two No. 1 seeds to the Final Four. Remarkably, exactly one or two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.

• Do not advance any team below No. 8 to the Final Four, as only 2 of the 88 Final Four teams have been seeded below No. 8.

• Do not advance any team below the No. 6 seed to the championship game as none have done so in the past 21 years.

• Pick a No. 4 or higher seed to win it all, as a No. 4 or higher seed has won the championship for 18 straight years.

Good luck and stay tuned. You may have more coverage on this exciting tournament in the days to come.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley